Doha may drive oil higher
Outlook: We have a ton of fresh data this week, including US CPI and PPI, the Beige Book, retail sales and industrial production. But the biggie will be the API inventory report at 4:30 ET this...
View ArticleGaps and gimcracks
Outlook: Let’s take note of contradictions. First, the dollar turned around against the yen from levels that made no sense in the first place and were probably a function of runaway speculation. We...
View ArticleBe careful what you read
Outlook: Yesterday’s Beige Book (prepared for the April 26-27 FOMC) was mostly upbeat. Seven of 12 districts judge growth to be modest to moderate, up from 6 last time. Wages were up in all areas...
View ArticleDoha meeting likely to do nothing to oil market situation
Outlook: We have altogether too many Big Factors today and over the weekend that could prove to be a tipping point for several markets. In the US, we get March industrial production and capacity...
View ArticleStrategic Currency Briefing
Outlook: Japan has had two earthquakes and now Ecuador has had one. Greece may be inching toward default again, or maybe Grexit. Brexit is starting to weigh on sterling but we don’t yet have the...
View ArticleECB unlikely to deliver anything new on Thursday
Outlook: Amid all the data noise, we see a slowdown in Europe that might turn out to bode ill for Mr. Draghi’s plans. Last week the German research institutes cut their growth forecasts for this year...
View ArticleForget central bankers, the world runs on oil
Outlook: Forget economies and comments from central bankers—the world runs on oil. We should expect rising oil price volatility and thus volatility in equities and some currencies. We are now getting...
View ArticleThe perverse yen rise may be ending
Outlook: Yesterday’s one day, one-way move was not enough to make the history books—and indeed it appears to be reversing this morning—but it was a fairly rare move. The euro flopped from 1.1388 at 8...
View ArticleDraghi not getting his unspoken wish of a falling currency to promote...
Outlook: Yesterday we proposed the goofy idea that the three big central banks—the Fed, the ECB and the BoJ, presumably with a nod from the BoE—were coordinating interest rate policy behind the scenes....
View ArticleJapan: Is intervention the next step?
Outlook: This is going to be an awful week. In addition to data, mostly on housing but also advance Q1 GDP (Thursday), we have two major central bank meetings, the Fed and the BoJ. The RBNZ also meets....
View ArticleNobody knows where oil is going
Outlook: We wrote yesterday that inflation is not high on the list of factors the bond gang is contemplating, higher yields notwithstanding, and that may make the current bout of near-2% rates a...
View ArticleThere is no good time to hike rates for the Fed
Outlook: We get the Fed statement early this afternoon and then the flurry of analysis and commentary. One big question is whether the Fed mentions the “balance of risks,” something it avoided talking...
View ArticleFed's window is closing fast because of the election on November
Outlook: A WSJ reporter has a cute statement that you can’t tell if a central bank is out of ammunition if it’s not firing. BoJ chief Kuroda somewhat testily said that of course the central bank has...
View ArticleThe eurozone has slid back into deflation
Outlook: Macro developments seem straightforward but they are not. We take the rise in gold as evidence of that. Uncertainty it actually quite high. If we understood what is going on in Big Picture...
View ArticleMacro developments starting to get a little scary
Outlook: Macro developments are starting to get a little scary. Not a new recession, but stagnation. Re-consider what the Markit economist said of the eurozone PMI’s this morning: growth is anemic....
View ArticleUntil the Fed starts talking rate hike again, the dollar is in a funk
Outlook: Today we get auto sales and a slew of Fed speeches. Tomorrow is the big data day (until payrolls on Friday). Tomorrow we get ADP estimates of private sector payrolls, the trade report, the...
View ArticleIs there a Currency war?
Outlook: Today we get the ADP estimate of private sector payrolls, the trade report, the Markit and ISM nonmanufacturing indices, and factory orders. ADP is likely to show a gain of 195,000 jobs in...
View ArticleAs usual, payrolls is going to dominate
Outlook: Today will consist chiefly of waiting for tomorrow. There’s probably a country song in there. As usual, payrolls is going to dominate. While the overall big picture is not much in doubt—job...
View ArticleHave Non-Farm Payrolls lost the capacity to surprise?
Outlook: Analysts keep saying payrolls should not be the main driver today because it las lost the capacity to surprise we already know job growth has been strong and steady and the unemployment rate...
View ArticleNFP report disappointed and yet the dollar did not fall
Outlook: We can’t drop Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report like last week’s trash because the report disappointed and yet the dollar did not fall. We can’t really credit the 2.5% y/y hourly wage gain—it’s...
View ArticleOil prices are still dominating the scene
Outlook: Whether we like it or not, oil prices are still dominating the scene. We wouldn’t have rising stock markets without it. We might not have a rising dollar index, either, although this runs...
View ArticleDollar expectations too far to the negative, better data to bring a rally
Outlook: The EIA oil inventory report today is the main news release. The API report yesterday showed a robust gain of 3.4 million barrels and yet the forecast for the EIA inventory report today is...
View Article
